For the pbs news hour, I'm Leila molana Allen in Doha Qatar.

>> Rescue efforts are underway for an American refueling aircraft that went down.

U.S.

Central command said the incident was not due to hostile or friendly fire.

For an assessment of where things stand with the war we get two views.

Alan air served in the U.S.

Government for four decades, and was part of the Obama administration's negotiating team for the nuclear deal with Iran.

He's now at the Middle East institute.

And behnam Ben taleblu is at the foundation for the defense of democracies, where he is the senior director of its Iran program.

Welcome you both to the program area Allen, we will start with you.

When you read this statement from Iran's new supreme leader, what stands out to you?

>> First of all that he made it.

Continuity of the hard-line during the time of war, it hit all the usual spots.

The things I found most important where the emphasis on keeping the straits closed, the statement he is going to seek reparations from the west or cause an equivalent amount of damage to western assets and the rest was the usual rhetoric that his late father used to use.

This was not ayatollah khomeini issuing this, this was ayatollah irgc issuing this and the leadership apparatus is still firmly in control and are moving forwardgeoff: Do you read at the same way?

>> I read it similarly, but not exactly the same.

The fact that this was a press piece rather than audio, video, or images or signs of life from the new supreme leader is perhaps the most telling part, that he is operating in the background that his lack of presence is that he is the new hidden Imam then they will try to limp along and signal continuity or feign continuity.

That has to be said but otherwise this is the middle East, the trend line is that things will go from bad to worse.

It is interesting that this is a coarsening national security we see in Iran today and one best exemplified by Iran's longest contemporary serving autocrat being at the helm and pushing out such a firm and aggressive statement.

Geoff: Looking at the battlefield so far, what has actually been accomplished in this war launched by the U.S.

And Israel?

Alan: Lots has been accomplished, unfortunately most of it is not good.

But when you look at the disparate spectrum of the U.S.

Administration goals that have been put forward, one that has been destroying Iran's ability to project power and we have by and large done that in terms of the nuclear program, the Navy, and terms of its ability to support proxies.

But we have destroyed their current ability to do so and we have vastly increased their future desire to do so.

So this war almost locks us and in terms of past dependency to future policy of mowing the lawn in Iran or being faced with an Iran that has lots of missiles and quite possibly is very close to or has a nuclear weapon.

Geoff: From your perspective, how significant are the losses for Iran and how fundamentally weekend is the regime's strategic position if at all?

Behnam: A couple of interesting dichotomies.

Weak does not mean not lethal and that is what we have seen from the islamic republic in 2025 and 2026.

The regime has been getting weaker, even really before the 12 day war last year and before January, this regime was auditioning to become the next failed state in that part of the world anyway due to central government policies.

The war certainly is extension awaiting that.

If you want to put a fancy military label on what Israel and America are doing in terms of military capacity right now, it is a combination of decapitation and defining.

There is an outsized's question as to whether a military victory can take the place of the victory that can take it to the next levelgiven that the force and function for the crisis is not the nuclear or missile issue or the drone or terrorism issue but back to the month of January earlier this year, the biggest nationwide regime uprising and where between eight and nine times they promised to help Iranian protesters.

So how this military wins is nested into a larger political strategy that is going to matter very much.

But it matters to the future what comes next, Iran two .0, three .0, or something else.

Geoff: Should president trump be thinking about declaring a military victory or does that risk leaving the job unfinished.

Alan: Rule number one when you are digging a hole and want to get out is stop digging.

The U.S.

Should stop digging, president trump can declare victory.

E have eliminated Iran's ability to project power passed its borders and he can also say the rest of the job is up to the Iranian people even though he has made it much harder in fact for the Iranian people to try to see his government and tried to move around toward a better future.

The position is first do no harm.

We should stop doing more harm.

We should stop and pull out.

Geoff: How do you see it?

Behnam: There is nothing more that the islamic republic would want is for their president to prematurely pull out and declare victory at the moment.

Iran's most powerful person, the secretary of the supreme national security council, a deep state veteran and bureaucrat, someone like him has literally just said that that they will be forcing America to prematurely end operations.

Whether you were for the conflict or not, I think we are in one right now.

I think it is going to be a core interest for U.S.

Policy.

The price of leaving the regime standing, the price of not having a larger containment and rollback policy is going to be significant here and the stakes are not just nuclear missile military, but we have a massive chasm between state and society within that country and that will be the yardstick by the end of the trump administration's term by which success or failure will be judged.

Geoff: If this regime survives this conflict, does it come out more cautious or more emboldened and therefore more dangerous?

Alan: Again, all of this prediction is hard, so I don't want to give a false certitude but it seems probable to me that this regime is one that it will be more oppressive to its own people and more frantic and trying to reestablish strategic deterrence by rebuilding its missiles, by moving deliberately toward a nuclear weapon.

I think the possible consequences, the probable consequences are unfortunately destabilizing to the region.

I hope I'm wrong.

Geoff: Alan eyre and behnam Ben taleblu, our thanks to you both.

Behnam: Thank you.

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